The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) raises concerns about escalating raw material demands, particularly for batteries, according to research collected by Ritsumeikan University. Highlighting substantial material consumption by lithium-ion batteries, the study advocates for implementing circular economy strategies to manage these demands sustainably. These findings are essential for informing policymakers on fostering sustainable EV adoption.
"In our study, we seek to address critical questions such as 'To what extent will vehicle electrification contribute to an escalation in resource use?', 'What are the underlying factors driving this change?', and 'To what extent can the increase in resource use be effectively managed and mitigated?'," says associate professor Dr. Shoki Kosai from Ritsumeikan University, Japan.
Key takeaways:
- With goals to limit CO2 emissions, many countries have set targets to phase out internal combustion vehicles in favor of EVs. Japan set a target for 20-30% of all car sales to be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and 30-40% of car sales to be hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) by 2030. The United States plans for 50% of new vehicles to be zero-emission by 2030, while Germany wants to have 15 million EVs on the road by 2030. These goals raise concerns about the raw material demand for EVs.
- Batteries, which account for 50% of all resources consumed in BEV production, require several minerals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and graphite. However, current estimates of resource demand underestimate total mineral demand as they do not account for resource demand needed for battery replacement during the vehicle’s lifetime and increasing battery capacities.
- This research addresses the current underestimations by accounting for raw material demand to produce, operate and maintain EVs.
- The study assessed the total material requirement (TMR) for EV batteries under three scenarios: the Reference Technology Scenario (RTS), maintaining current energy and technological trends; the 2-Degree Scenario (2DS), requiring major climate change mitigation to limit temperature rise to 2°C; and the Beyond 2-Degree Scenario (B2DS), targeting zero emissions by 2060 and limiting temperature rise to 1.75°C by 2100.
- The findings reveal that TMR for EVs increases in all three scenarios. Under the RTS scenario, which assumes most vehicles remain internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), the demand for raw materials nearly doubles from 2015 levels. In the B2DS scenario, where BEVs dominate, the demand is 22.7% higher. In this scenario, lithium-ion batteries are projected to account for 55% of the total resource use in the automotive industry, driven by the production and maintenance of BEVs.
- The researchers discovered that implementing specific circular economy strategies could halve resource demand or maintain it at 2015 levels. These strategies include extending vehicle lifetimes, promoting car and ride-sharing services, enhancing material recovery and recycling in new vehicles, improving fuel efficiency, and adopting longer-lasting solid-state batteries.
“Overall, the findings of this study were clear. In the automotive sector, electrification contributes to an increase in resource use by approximately more than twice. Vehicle electrification can be achieved without increasing resource use if a set of circular economy strategies is concurrently and ambitiously implemented,” says Kosai.
